Cox Automotive forecasts sales of 39.4 million used vehicles this year by dealers and private parties, down from the estimated 39.6 million in 2019. Sales by franchised and independent dealers would total 20.3 million, up from 20.0 million last year.
 
Jonathan Smoke, Cox’s chief economist, expects this year to mark "the beginning of a slight decline in total" used-vehicle sales. While used-vehicle sales by dealerships should keep on climbing.
 
"We believe the retail market will continue to grow as the supply shifts to higher-quality, younger and more expensive used vehicles," Smoke said.
 
The National Automobile Dealers Association said that affordability issues on the new-car side, along with robust used-car inventory levels, have some consumers moving from new to used.
 
"As affordability remains a challenge, more consumers chose used vehicles in 2019," NADA chief economist Patrick Manzi said in the analysis. "New cars are getting too expensive for many consumers. Even consumers with great credit or the ability to buy new are instead choosing a used vehicle."